John Q public as a whole is a really good handicapper. We all have heard the stat that the post time favorite wins approximately 33% of the time. That’s an impressive statistic, but with some simple math one can quickly realize that betting on the favorite day in and day out is a quick route to being broke. But if the favorite wins a third of the time, what that really means is that the favorite loses two-thirds (66.6%) of the time. And when the favorite loses, the price on the winning horse is something that could lead to long term success.
If you could have one super-power at the track, (Other than knowing the outcome of all the races, that’s just cheating) the one super-power that would lead to the most profit long term, would be knowing the races where the favorites are vulnerable. Now that doesn’t mean there aren’t ways to make money on a legitimate favorite, but we as handicappers must find the angles needed to find the other 66.6% of races, those races where the favorite isn’t legitimate, where they are false favorites. It’s in those races where the profits and your bankroll can increase on a regular basis.
With hundreds of races a day imagine the ability to find the races quickly and easily that offer the most likely false favorites. This idea of finding the false favorites each day is the focus of our newest offering here at Horse Betting Direct. Our False Favorite report looks to find those key races where the likely favorite is at their most vulnerable state. Using our database that processed over 30,000 races in 2014 alone, we have found a way to exploit known scenarios where the morning line favorite shows the likelihood of not only being defeated, but not even hitting the board.
As an example, let’s take a look at a couple of races from the weekend of March 8th, 2015 at Fonner Park. Race 8 the 1 horse, FIT TO STRIKE, was identified as a False Favorite and went off as the less than even money post time favorite. FIT TO STRIKE finished 5th, out of the money, in a ‘who cares’ Allowance race at one of the smaller tracks that many players don’t pay attention to. But by using our False Favorite report, we watched a 7-1 horse win, followed by a 4-1 horse in second and a post time 18-1 finish in third. The payout was over $70 for a $2 exacta and an impressive $176 for a $1 trifecta.
The beauty of this system comes when we can string races together that indicate possible False Favorite scenarios. In race nine at Fonner Park that same night we had listed the 4 horse, COOLENOUGHTOSIZZLE, as another possible false favorite. Again we were looking at a claiming race that most of the country wasn’t paying attention to, but we watched as the post time favorite went off at 5/2 and finished 4th. And again there wasn’t anything crazy on top, a 3-1 horse won, with a 9-1 in second and a 6-1 in third. But watching the favorite finish outside of the money produced another $70+ exacta, a $222 trifecta and combined with the previous race, a decent $54 daily double.
These scenarios are not far and few between, they happen daily at tracks all over the United States. Our job is to find these races and exploit them, but with hundreds of races a day there has to be a better tool to find value.