Kentucky Downs 09/25/13
I love Kentucky Downs! If you haven’t played there, you need to start looking there, it unlike any other course in the country for a number of reasons. Physically it is only turf, there is no dirt track at Kentucky Downs and all races are ran on a uniquely shaped European-style course. In fact Kentucky Downs is the only race track in America other than the Santa Anita Downhill course to feature a right hand turn. The other great thing to like about Kentucky Downs is the size of the fields. For instance today the smallest field is 11horses while most are sitting around 13 to fourteen entries. Granted scratches occur just like any other track, but you will consistently find double digit entries here which means better prices and more money won.
Before we get started, let me put out these three disclaimers about my handicapping at Kentucky Downs.
I will absolutely focus on late speed. On this course, late speed is king!
Here is the breakdown of Kentucky Downs for Wednesday 09/25/2013
I loved the 12 BE NICE OR LEAVE, but they scratched this morning leaving me with my second choice the 13 TAPITEAO not only does it sound like the second greatest hot sauce on earth, but it should have the strongest run coming down the stretch with an HBD Late Pace rating of 44.8, a 40.8% advantage over the field coming down the stretch. The 7 RAISED ON ROBBERY is another horse that could be coming late in this shorter 6f race.
The 3 CATHEDRO is my favorite horse here, getting 9/2 morning line should be a gift as this horse should be perfectly set up for a stretch run and will be right in the middle of the pack the majority of the way. While there are some other late speed in this race, I think the 3 should have the best position to win this one. Another horse to look for is the 2 SMARTY BOY who has a double+ angle on our sheets and could surprise from just off the pace at 15-1.
Another 8f race here in the 3td and another strong finisher in the 12 VIVA LAD, but my pick is going to be with the 13 LARGE SCALE. The 13 has a double+ angle and has improved his last two starts and is running third off a layoff and should improve on his numbers again. Not to mention he is the 3rd best late pace rating in the race and should be able to break from just off the pace as the 5th best Early pace rating in the race. Did I mention we are getting a 10-1 morning line on this one too!
The 14 MISTIE ROYAL should have been easy money here, but was scratched this morning. After the 14 this race is really really tight, the 5 EMMY WHO has a Double+ angle and is coming second off a layoff and could improve on numbers to be in contention.
Back to a shorter 6f race for the 5th race of the day and the 4 SPILL should be the post time favorite and we may be lucky to get even money on him at this point. But all things point to the 4 having the best chance to win this race. Double+ angle, moving route to sprint and coming 2nd off a layoff means we have to bet this horse if we can get 3/2 or better.
The 10 is one of our favorites here according to the sheets, but hasn’t raced in 53 days so I am going to pass and look elsewhere including the 8 SKIPPING THE SCORE who is coming 2nd off a layoff and should have the best position to make a move down the stretch. This is a fairly open race a decent price could steal this one.
Going to break one of my own rules here, the 13 PURSTEENA hasn’t raced in 43 days, but is coming off a great run and has the Double+ angle, is moving down to 7f and should be in perfect position to strike, getting 6-1 morning line isn’t too shabby either.
Love the 6 BEAR ON THE RUN here, this horse is 8-1 on the morning line and shold be near the front of the pack in this 6f race. The late speed of -30.8 would be a concern but moving Route2Sprint means we should be able to see a significant improvement in the Late Pace numbers and could hold on for the win without much other pace coming from within striking distance.
This race is a skip for me, 14 entries and 10 of them are First Time Starters….means I don’t want my money any where near this thing. Enjoy!
This race will all depend on how I am doing so far. I really don’t like to play super long 10.5f races and many of the horses simply don’t have the history to make an educated guess off of. I like the 4 GET REAL here and my make a play if the day is going well.
The 2 LITTLE NIP is moving Route 2 Sprint and has far and away the best late speed of the field. If he can stay close to the pace he should win this one going away, with a morning line of 9/2 we may even get a decent price on him as well.
The 3 SEVE has Double+ angle and is coming 3rd off layoff. Will hve a decent shot coming down the stretch in this 7f affair and will have every shot to win this one.
Another super long 12f race here, and I am simply going to stop playing one race early and call it a day.
Good luck out there!