HBD’s Super Derby Day


HBD basic and pro sheet customers had the superfecta in their pockets on Kentucky Derby Day. Our top four picks American Pharaoh, Frosted, Dortmund and Firing Line all finished in the top four a $1 Superfecta box would have cost $24 and paid over $630.

Kentucky Derby HBD Sheet

That is the way its supposed to work, watching our top pick American Pharaoh pulling away from our fourth pick Firing Line after shaking off our third pick Dortmund for the trifecta. What makes it even better was looking up and realizing that our second choice Frosted completed our superfecta. When it was all said and done the bets using our system paid our the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta on a nice derby day.

Let’s take a look at each individual performance and some of the things we learned from this 141st running of the Kenucky Derby. American Pharoah went off at just under our HBD Fair odds line of 3-1 and won convincingly by more than a length. He rated just off the pace and was able to grab the leaders about half way down the stretch. A nice ladder bet on our top pick would have cost a better $20 and returned a nice total of $50.40 or a profit of $30.40.

According to the official chart Firing Line was in 2nd place the entire race, he broke well from the middle of the pack grabbed outside of Dortmund and never looked back to the majority of the pack. The only horse that would catch was the eventual winner. A simple $2 Exacta box of our top four horses would have cost a better $24 and returned an impressive $72.60. The nice part of this bet was that no one was close to ruining it as the entire race seemed to be between these three horses.

Dortmund rounded out the trifecta and really had no excuse for not finishing stronger. He grabbed the lead fairly easily coming down into the first turn and was able to produce fairly soft splits of 23.1/47.1/1:11.1 and was still not able to hold off American Pharoah and Firing Line late. The good news is that he was able to hold off the late charge of Frosted and gather 3rd. (Although the trifecta and Super would have paid more had Frosted caught him late). But again a nice easy $1 trifecta box would have cost the better $24 and returned a decent $101. Not the huge trifecta numbers that we have seen in recent years at the Derby but nearly a 300% profit isn’t anything to complain about.

Finally, Frosted may have ran the best race of all the horses out there, our second choice didn’t break well and started the race near the rear of the field. As they hit the backstretch Frosted managed to only have three horses beat. Considering the field turned in those soft fractions its quite impressive that he was able to pass the majority of the field, in fact he passed nine competitors while rounding the final turn. He passed a few more coming down the stretch and finally nearly caught Dortmund as they hit the wire. In fact, Frosted not only gained ground on the horses he passed, but he also gained ground on the winners as they moved down the stretch. Completing our superfecta, a better who spent $24 on a $1 superfecta box of our top horses would have seen a return of $634.10.

What a day, what a lovely day!