Category Archives for Road To the Roses

Kentucky Derby – Negative Trends

Handicapping 3-year old horses is never easy, and handicapping a field of 20 3-year old horses is even harder. But since the Derby first ran in 1875 we have an amazing amount of history to look back upon and help us out. Let’s take a look at some of the more consistent negative trends. *This information is adapted from Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Strike System. A system that Jon White uses to find horses that are less likely to win the Kentucky Derby. Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race…

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Kentucky Derby Top 10 Lists

I know it’s early, we don’t really know the field and posts haven’t been drawn yet and a lot can and will still change. But it’s Derby season, and this is my 2nd favorite horse racing day of the year (Breeders’ Cup Saturday has no equal). So I got together with some digital friends over on the amazing Facebook group Down The Stretch and we put together our own set of ‘expert’ rankings. We will revisit these later on in a few but for now here we go.   A big thanks to Down The Stretch Facebook group and all…

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Who is Thunder Snow?

Here we sit, the Arkansas Derby just around the corner as the last of the 100 point Kentucky Derby prep races and tons of questions surrounding this year’s derby field. I can’t remember the last time we had a field in which no one or three or four horses found their way to the top of the pile. Most people that I have talked to agree this is one of the weakest or at least even fields we have seen in years. There is no Nyquist vs Exaggerator, Pharoah vs. Dortmond, Chrome, Orb vs Verrazano and Goldencents. As we sit…

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Wood, Blue Grass, Santa Anita – Post Mortem

Wood, Blue Grass, Santa Anita – Post Mortem

Going into this weekend I was really excited for two of the KYDerby Prep races and indifferent about the third. Let’s take a quick look at what happened, what we learned and what we still don’t know. Wood Memorial What happened? Entering the race, I thought this was the weakest of the three on paper as it turns out this may have been one of the better performances on the weekend. IRISH WAR CRY came into the race after finishing a distant 7th in the Fountain of Youth and was still sitting at 7/2 when the gates opened. He rated…

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100 Point Derby Prep Preview

It’s officially Derby season, I know some of you reading this believe that derby season starts back in September when the first points are awarded to 2 year olds in the Iroquois at Churchill, but let’s be real. Next weekend the third phase of the ‘new’ Kentucky Derby qualifying races begin. In this set of races 100 points will be awarded to the winners, with 50 points to second, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth. Meaning that both the winner and the second place finisher from these races alone will have enough points to qualify for the…

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Using your Bankroll Wisely Betting the Kentucky Derby

The beauty and appeal of the Kentucky Derby is that in a 20 horse field, exotic bets even including the favorite can still come back with a decent total. Last year the heavy favorite American Pharaoh won followed by the 4th betting choice and the 2nd choice still paid a nice $72 on a $2 exacta and $101 on the $1 trifecta. And those can sky rocket up if a decent price can find their way into the equation. The year before the heavy favorite California Chrome was followed by the longshot Commanding Curve, instantly sending the exacta to $240…

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HBD’s $50 Kentucky Derby Guarantee

Since our birth four years ago, we have yet to miss on the Kentucky Derby. In fact for the last two years we gave you the exacta, trifecta AND superfectas as our top four picks. We have so much confidence in our sheets on big race days, that we are willing to guarantee our picks in the derby. All you have to do is purchase our Churchill Downs report for Kentucky Derby Day (available Thursday) to be eligible. If the winning derby horse is not in our top four, we will credit you with $50 worth of sheets through HBD…

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Kentucky Derby 2016 – A Week Away

A week from today, we will know the answer to the two-million dollar question. But right now a week away, here is where I sit on all of the possible starters. We will take another look at this list after the post draw this week, but for now… MY TOP PICK Gun Runner – Please find a way to give me double digit odds on this horse. This Steve Asmussen colt is the top KYDerby point’s earner during the prep season and has the running style that has succeeded at the Derby throughout history. I wasn’t high on this colt…

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Kentucky Derby Field 2016 – Positive Trends

Handicapping 3-year old horses is never easy, and handicapping a field of 20 3-year old horses is even harder. But since the Derby first ran in 1875 we have an amazing amount of history to look back upon and help us out. Let’s take a look at some of the more consistent positive trends. The positive trend data is going to work much like the negative trend data, there are a total of five positive trend data points that we are going to look at, each time a horse qualifies under the positive criteria they receive a point. Give a…

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Kentucky Derby Field 2016 – Negative Trends

Handicapping 3-year old horses is never easy, and handicapping a field of 20 3-year old horses is even harder. But since the Derby first ran in 1875 we have an amazing amount of history to look back upon and help us out. Let’s take a look at some of the more consistent negative trends. *This information is adapted from Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Strike System. A system that Jon White uses to find horses that are less likely to win the Kentucky Derby. Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race…

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