Category Archives for Race Previews

100 Point Derby Prep Preview

It’s officially Derby season, I know some of you reading this believe that derby season starts back in September when the first points are awarded to 2 year olds in the Iroquois at Churchill, but let’s be real. Next weekend the third phase of the ‘new’ Kentucky Derby qualifying races begin. In this set of races 100 points will be awarded to the winners, with 50 points to second, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth. Meaning that both the winner and the second place finisher from these races alone will have enough points to qualify for the…

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Pegasus World Cup Day – Gulfstream Park

It may be still winter, but the biggest horse race of the year kicks off Saturday with 12 horses and 12 million dollars. The race between California Chrome and Arrogate may have the commercials and the hype, but this is a loaded card with some great racing. Race 1 I love 7 furlong races, it’s that magic number that seems to separate both the sprinters and the long distance routers. Those connections and horses that thrive here are few and far between. We start the day with our first Top Tier Single in the 2 HOMESPUN HERO. Michael Maker and…

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Top 6ish KY Derby Horses *LA / UAE Derby Week*

Last week was our first take at the top 6ish, there isn’t much change at the top this week, but the bottom has moved around quite a bit. Cherry Wine and SuddenBreakingNews both fall off the list and Cupid and Mor Spirit find their way on the list. Two big races this weekend both featuring horses that are on this list, the UAE Derby will be early Saturday morning and I am really looking forward to see how Frank Conversation handles the ship overseas and the Louisiana Derby is going to showcase our fifth horse Mo Tom who has ran…

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The Field of 20 with Picks and Thoughts

Additional Resources The 2015 KY Derby Field Negative Trends Positive Trends Trend Data Summary Road to the Roses Race Rplays I use this system throughout the year not just during the Derby, but I think this is a great way to illustrate how and why I do it this way. If you haven’t read the book “Exotic Betting: How to Make the Multihorse, Multirace Bets that Win” by Steven Crist, you are doing it wrong. This system is a direct adaptation from this book and his work on ticket creation. This system allows you to put together exotic tickets that…

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Having Fun with Early M/L Potential

I know it’s early! I know we don’t have the post draw figured out yet, but it’s fun so leave me alone! Heck you’re here reading it so let us just sit back and have some fun with this shall we. First off a huge shout out to @AndoTrist21 over on Twitter, I was going to write my own M/L odds as of right now, but he threw some out there yesterday and they were great! If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Also he has a great blog called Handicapping this Magical Life that is worth checking out as…

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Emerald Downs Opening Day 2015

Most horse players may ignore the little track up in the Northwest, but if you have ever seen Emerald Downs on a clear day you will know its one of the most beautiful tracks in the states. It is always a beautiful thing to see your horse coming down the stretch for the win, but when you add the majestic Mt. Rainier behind the finish line its second to none. Opening day comes but once a year! Let us take a closer look at the 10 race card for Saturday, May 18th, 2015. Nine of the ten races will be…

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Kentucky Derby 2015 – Trend Data Summary

Additional Resources The 2015 KY Derby Field Negative Trends Positive Trends Trend Data Summary Road to the Roses 2015 After looking at both the positive trends of the Kentucky Derby and the negative trends of the Kentucky Derby, what happens when we combine that information and look at the horses that stand out? From our previous work in the Positive Trends data we had the field of 20 narrowed down to a total of ten different winners. Combining that information with the 14 likely winners left over after using the Negative Trend data to eliminate contenders we come up with…

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Kentucky Derby 2015 – Positive Trends

Additional Resources The 2015 KY Derby Field Negative Trends Positive Trends Trend Data Summary Road to the Roses 2015 Handicapping 3-year old horses is never easy, and handicapping a field of 20 3-year old horses is even harder. But since the Derby first ran in 1875 we have an amazing amount of history to look back upon and help us out. Let’s take a look at some of the more consistent positive trends. The positive trend data is going to work much like the negative trend data, there are a total of five positive trend data points that we are…

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Kentucky Derby 2015 – Negative Trends

Additional Resources The 2015 KY Derby Field Negative Trends Positive Trends Trend Data Summary Road to the Roses 2015 Handicapping 3-year old horses is never easy, and handicapping a field of 20 3-year old horses is even harder. But since the Derby first ran in 1875 we have an amazing amount of history to look back upon and help us out. Let’s take a look at some of the more consistent negative trends. *This information is adapted from Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Strike System. A system that Jon White uses to find horses that are less likely to win the…

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Hitting the Stretch Run of the Derby Trail

The road to the Kentucky Derby is making the turn and is entering the final stretch. Today marks the beginning of the end as all three of today’s Derby Prep races are worth 100 points to the winner and likely gives the top three finishers enough points to take the gate in Churchill. Our newest blog post takes a look at each horse in both the Louisiana Derby and the Florida Derby. The Louisiana Derby ultimately comes down to the question of who, if anyone can beat International Star? A number of horses in this field have often been the bridesmaid…

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